Why COVID is not just like the flu (but) in a single brutal graph

“This can be a flu. This is sort of a flu,” former President Donald Trump insisted at a Feb. 26, 2020, press briefing, simply because the virus hit the U.S. “It’s slightly like an everyday flu that we’ve got flu pictures for.”

Whereas the 2 can current with comparable signs—like fever, cough, fatigue, sore throat, muscle aches, and headache—and are each extra prone to be deadly for the aged and immunocompromised, the comparability falls aside in relation to the dying toll. 

One graph specifically exhibits simply how stark the mortality distinction is between the 2. Flu deaths seem virtually flat in comparison with surges in COVID deaths over the previous three years. 

“We’re now attempting to deal with [COVID] like a seasonal influenza and it’s simply not but,” Dr. Michael Osterholm, director of the College of Minnesota’s Middle for Infectious Illness Analysis and Coverage (CIDRAP), just lately informed Fortune.

There have been 1,055 COVID deaths within the U.S. two weeks in the past, in response to knowledge from the U.S. Facilities for Illness Management and Prevention, in comparison with solely 4 flu deaths the identical week.

COVID deaths have spiked a number of instances over the previous few years because of new variants of the virus, taking a whole bunch of hundreds of lives yearly (463,210 final yr). Against this, the flu solely took an estimated 22,000 lives throughout the 2019-2020 season, in response to the CDC. 

Over the previous 12 years, the flu’s estimated annual dying toll has been as little as 12,000, however by no means greater than 61,000—simply an eighth of COVID’s dying toll within the first yr of the pandemic.

Because the earliest days of the pandemic, weekly COVID deaths have been at the very least 15 instances that of weekly flu deaths—and typically as a lot as 811 instances.

Right here for the lengthy haul

COVID’s dying toll is unlikely to sink to flu ranges any time quickly, specialists say, although U.S. well being officers have expressed hope that COVID boosters will quickly turn into an annual prevalence, very similar to the flu shot.

“I feel COVID deaths will proceed to exceed flu deaths for some time, until we see one thing new in influenza,” like a deadlier pressure creating, Dr. Stuart Ray, vice chair of medication for knowledge integrity and analytics at Johns Hopkins Division of Drugs, just lately informed Fortune.

In relation to main causes of dying within the U.S., COVID has landed as No. 3 for the final two years, whereas influenza and pneumonia, grouped collectively, have landed as No. 9, in response to the CDC. 

Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious illness specialist and senior scholar on the Johns Hopkins Middle for Well being Safety, agrees with Ray. He says COVID is prone to stay a number one reason for dying within the U.S. “for the following couple of years,” because the inhabitants builds extra immunity and science develops simpler instruments to combat the virus—so long as the virus doesn’t evade these instruments.

Ultimately, the CDC will probably collapse COVID deaths into the flu and pneumonia deaths class, Adalja predicts. However he nonetheless expects COVID to have an “outsized” dying toll when in comparison with different infectious ailments within the U.S., just like the flu, for the foreseeable future.

One factor is definite, in response to Adalja: Whether or not COVID continues to be a prime killer within the U.S. and globally, or whether or not its fatality charge finally sinks to that of the present-day flu, COVID is right here to remain.

To assume that the brand new virus can be stamped out, and that life will revert to love it was in 2019, is “magical pondering,” he stated. 

“Not within the historical past of the human species have we had a brand new infectious illness seem that simply disappears,” he stated. “So long as there are people on this planet, there are going to be COVID-19 infections on this planet.”