Replace: The house worth correction in America’s 400 largest housing markets, as proven by one interactive map

That kind of looming loss explains why Redfin lately introduced it’s shutting down its algorithm-run iBuyer enterprise. So long as the U.S. housing market stays in correction mode, the mathematics simply doesn’t make sense.

“When the shiitake mushrooms hit the fan, you [investors] need to get out first. The best way to do this is to determine the place the bottom sale is, and be 2% under that. And if it doesn’t promote within the first weekend, transfer it [the price] down [again],” Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman lately informed Fortune.

Whereas flippers and homebuilders are scrambling to maneuver stock in markets like Las Vegas—the place residence values are down -6.93% since its 2022 peak—that’s not the story (no less than but) in each market. Numerous markets are nonetheless sitting at their 2022 peak. Merely put: The “shiitake mushrooms” has but to hit “the fan” in each market.

To higher perceive the continued housing correction, Fortune reviewed the most recent Zillow House Worth Index (ZHVI) information.

Among the many nation’s 400 greatest housing markets, 219 have seen residence values fall off their 2022 peak. The typical decline being -2%.

Whereas the house worth correction has definitely gone nationwide, it continues to hit two sorts of markets tougher than others.

The primary group being “considerably overvalued” housing markets. These are sometimes both second residence markets or boomtowns that noticed residence costs in the course of the increase soar far past what native incomes can help.

Look no additional than Austin, which Moody’s Analytics deemed within the second quarter as being “overvalued” by 61.1%. That stage of froth may clarify why Austin has already seen residence values fall 10.21% from its 2022 peak. Not too far behind Austin are different “considerably overvalued” markets like Reno (the place residence values are down -8.47%), Boise (-7.06%), and Salt Lake Metropolis (-6.89%).

The second group contains high-cost markets alongside the West Coast. Locations like San Francisco (the place residence values are down -8.18%), Santa Cruz (-7.58%), and Seattle (-6.28%). In line with John Burns Actual Property Consulting, these markets are hyper mortgage fee delicate. In lots of instances, they’re hit by a double whammy: Not solely are their high-end actual property markets extra rate-sensitive, however so are their tech sectors.

Whereas 219 main markets are down from their 2022 peak worth, one other 181 markets stay at their 2022 peak worth. The continuing mortgage fee shock has but to see residence values, as measured by Zillow, fall in markets like Philadelphia, Baltimore, Virginia Seashore, Oklahoma Metropolis, and Richmond.

However that does not imply the house worth correction will not hit markets like Virginia Seashore and Philadelphia. If mortgage charges stay elevated and unsold stock—which nationally remains tight—continues to construct, it may apply additional downward strain on residence costs.

That is precisely what Moody’s Analytics expects to occur.

Whereas Moody’s would not anticipate a 2000s-style housing crash (which noticed U.S. residence costs fall 27% from peak-to-trough), it does anticipate U.S. residence costs to fall round 10% from peak-to-trough. That features drops of 14.2% and 5.3%, respectively, in markets like Virginia Seashore and Philadelphia. (Here is the Moody’s outlook for the nation’s 322 largest markets).

On one hand, a few of these 2022 residence worth corrections are pretty massive. Alternatively, most of those markets are nonetheless up big-time because the onset of the Pandemic Housing Growth.

Between March 2020 and Could 2022, Austin noticed its residence values soar 75.36%. Since, it has taken a -10.21% hair reduce. That pulls Austin’s pandemic residence worth positive aspects right down to 57.46%.

Join the Fortune Options e mail checklist so that you don’t miss our greatest options, unique interviews, and investigations.