The earnings apocalypse has not but materialized

The primary crop of earnings stories was a disappointment, however a lot of the early financial institution stories on Friday had been first rate, and Financial institution of America additionally reported earnings above expectations Monday morning.

Thirty- 5 firms have reported third-quarter earnings to date. Of that group, 68.5% have crushed estimates, decrease than the prior four-quarter common of 78.1% however greater than the historic common of 66.2%, in response to Refinitiv.

Just like the second quarter, many have been anticipating an earnings apocalypse — a dramatic collapse in earnings.

The proof to date suggests a contraction however not a collapse.

The third-quarter estimated earnings development charge for the S&P 500 is now 3.6%, down from 11.1% on July 1. Excluding power, nonetheless, the expansion charge drops to minus-3.1%.

These big oil income have hid that 9 of 11 S&P sectors have already seen downward earnings revisions. Know-how has seen a considerable downward revision — from up 5.8% on July 1 to minus-4.0% at this time.

There have been comparable downward revisions within the fourth quarter as effectively. Know-how has gone from an anticipated acquire of 8.6% on July 1 to minus-0.4% now, for instance.

Backside line on earnings: the market has already priced in a a lot decrease a number of ( P/E ratio), anticipating a slowdown within the financial system. Everyone seems to be now anticipating that earnings will probably be slashed for the fourth quarter, and that would be the impetus for one more leg down available in the market.

The ache commerce (the commerce that may trigger the best shock available in the market) could be that earnings are available in near expectations, which may trigger the identical rally that we noticed after the June lows, when one other anticipated earnings apocalypse didn’t occur.

In the event you’re on the lookout for indicators of a backside, you are not going to search out it within the technical indicators. Technicians had been stuffed with gloomy feedback over the weekend.

“For the reason that expiration of this summer season’s bear market rally in mid-August, the steadiness of Demand and Provide materially weakened,” Lowry, the nation’s oldest technical evaluation service, wrote to shoppers over the weekend.

No kidding: rallies to date (there have been a number of, in Might, June, July, September and October) have met with little shopping for enthusiasm (heavy quantity).

“Traditionally, such patterns are indicators of a inventory market that’s susceptible to additional intermediate-term draw back,” Lowry wrote.

A easy indicator of momentum, the advance-decline line, fell to a brand new bear market low final week.

“This reinforces the market’s fragile state and suggests additional draw back for shares as breadth typically leads value,” Lowry wrote.