South Korea’s exports to fall in Oct for first time in two years By Reuters

By Jihoon Lee

SEOUL (Reuters) – South Korea’s exports probably fell in October, shrinking for the primary time in almost two years within the face of a worldwide financial slowdown and rising rates of interest, a Reuters survey confirmed on Friday.

The nation’s outbound shipments had been forecast to have fallen 3.0% in October from the identical month a yr in the past, in keeping with the median forecast of 11 economists, after progress slowed to a close to two-year low of two.7% in September.

That will finish a 23-month streak of year-on-year good points since November 2020. The tempo of progress has fallen extra sharply since mid-2022, with progress charges for the previous 4 months all the way down to single-digits.

“Export progress fee is anticipated to show detrimental in October on continued affect from weakening world demand for items, downturn in semiconductor cycle, and slowdown of shipments to China,” stated Park Sung-woo, an economist at DB Monetary Funding.

Throughout the first 20 days of this month, exports shrank 5.5%, as gross sales to China – South Korea’s largest buying and selling companion – dropped 16.3%, on target for a fifth full month of declines.

In the meantime, imports had been anticipated to increase their run of good points to a twenty third month with progress of seven.2%. Nonetheless, the determine could be effectively down on 18.6% in September and the weakest since January 2021.

Altogether, they’d deliver the commerce steadiness to a deficit for a seventh consecutive month, placing it on observe for the primary annual shortfall in 14 years and the largest-ever.

Full month-to-month commerce information is scheduled for launch on the primary day of November.

The survey additionally forecast the nation’s annual inflation fee for October could be flat at 5.6%, after softening for a second month in September. The speed hit a close to 24-year excessive of 6.3% in July.

There was, nevertheless, some division in expectations. Of 11 respondents, 5 noticed the inflation fee rebounding, whereas three picked no change and the remaining three anticipated it to ease additional.

On South Korea’s manufacturing facility output, economists anticipated manufacturing to have prolonged its downturn for a 3rd month in September, falling 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted month-to-month foundation, after a 1.8% decline in August.