Novo, Lilly to learn essentially the most from weight problems, however Cowen says do not ignore different gamers

World weight problems drug gross sales are more likely to hit ~$30B by 2020, based on Cowen, with Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) more likely to dominate the market.

However the Wall Avenue agency additionally tells buyers to not solely take note of different pharmas with weight reduction drug within the pipeline, however regulate firms creating medical units and digital therapeutics to make in-roads within the weight problems therapy area.

In a Nov. 18 report, Cowen stated that therapy for weight problems is just in its fledgling state. Solely 30% of overweight people ever obtain a analysis and therapy charges are solely within the low single digits. The agency added that drug therapy is just utilized by simply 1%-2% of overweight sufferers.

In a June survey, Cowen discovered that weight problems specialists stated they view medicine as applicable for ~60% of their sufferers. That compares to twenty% for surgical intervention. A survey of physicians and payors carried out in October by Cowen discovered that they agree that the proportion of non-diabetic overweight sufferers on weight-loss medicine is ready to extend considerably.

Pharmacotherapy

Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Lilly (LLY) are looking for to extend weight problems medicine utilization, and quickly, with their respective GLP-1 receptor agonists, Wegovy (semaglutide) and tirzepatide. Cowen tasks Wegovy gross sales of over $7B and over tirzepatide gross sales of greater than $11B in 2030. Tirzepatide is at present permitted as a sort 2 diabetes remedy below the title Mounjaro however Lilly (LLY) is pursuing the drug for weight reduction in part 3.

Cowen can be bullish on Novo (NVO) candidate CagriSema, a mix of semaglutide and a novel amylin analogue, cagrilintide. The pharma launched optimistic part 2 leads to August displaying reductions in blood sugar stage and weight. Part 3 is slated to begin in 2023. Cowen sees $5B in CagriSema gross sales if knowledge continues to carry out properly.

Within the pipeline, Lilly (LLY) has the GLP-1R/GIPR/GCGR triple agonist retatrutide in part 2 with a knowledge replace anticipated in January 2023. Different massive pharmas with weight problems candidates in mid-to-late stage improvement embrace Merck’s (NYSE:MRK) GLP-1R/GCGR twin agonist efinopegdutide (knowledge replace additionally in January), Pfizer’s (NYSE:PFE) oral therapy danuglipron, AltImmune’s (ALT) GLP-1R/GCGR twin agonist pemvidutide (ALT-801 (knowledge replace June 2023), and AstraZeneca’s (AZN) GLP-1/GCGR twin agonist cotadutide (replace July 2025).

Medical Units

On this space, Cowen sees Apollo Endoscopy (APEN) as its prime decide in weight problems. The corporate’s endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty (ESG) process makes use of its proprietary OverStitch endoscopic suturing system. The corporate is creating the OverStitch NXT single channel endoscopic suturing system that’s stated to have enhanced efficiency traits making it simpler to make use of, increasing entry to the know-how.

Cowen additionally touted Apollo’s (APEN) space-occupying system, the Orbera Intragastric Balloon System, calling it “the main gastric balloon worldwide.” The agency added the system can result in 10% weight reduction.

Cowen highlighed ReShape Lifesciences (RSLS) which makes Obalon, an intragastric balloon that’s crammed with fuel. In a single examine, Obalon led to a median 4.2% weight reduction at 12 weeks, making it inferior to different balloons.

Digital Therapeutics