Nifty outlook: Will November be naughty or good for Nifty? It is a 50-50 likelihood, reveals 10-year information

NEW DELHI: After gaining round 4% up to now within the month of October, the Indian fairness headline index Nifty has a 50-50 likelihood of permitting the bulls to rule Dalal Avenue as soon as once more in November.

Nifty’s historic monitor report of the final 10 years reveals that the index gave constructive returns 5 occasions in November with the pandemic-hit 2020 turning out to be the very best one with an 11.4% month-to-month return.

The worst one was in 2016 when the index eroded 4.65% of investor wealth.

Within the calendar yr 2022, the inventory market has given constructive returns in solely 4 months amid heavy sell-off by overseas institutional buyers or FIIs.

July’s 8.6% return has been the very best one up to now which got here proper after Nifty hit a 52-week low of 15,183.40 on June 17.

Because the US Fed appears to be like set for one more 75 foundation level charge hike on November 2, analysts say the tempo of FII outflow could be a key determinant of the market’s trajectory.

Having bought Indian shares price over Rs 1.7 lakh crore up to now within the calendar yr, the outflow by FIIs diminished in October.

Since 2012, FIIs have been internet sellers in November solely thrice in 2015, 2016 and 2021, reveals ACE Fairness information. Mutual funds, alternatively, are extra vulnerable to promoting in November as seen on 5 events within the final 10 years.

Analysts say we is perhaps within the final section of the FII sell-off. “Possibly the worst for the market is over as a result of inflation might have peaked and FIIs have bought quite a bit. Nonetheless, we are going to proceed to hover with a unfavourable bias within the subsequent one to 2 quarters,” mentioned Vinod Nair, Head of Analysis at

.

F&O information reveals the November collection has begun on a constructive be aware with each FIIs and HNIs rolling over lengthy positions.

“Going into the November collection, we might be bullish and assign the next likelihood of a breakout on the upside after an extended spell of consolidation. Therefore, we might be a purchaser in dips right here,” brokerage

mentioned in a report.
Securities has advised merchants to make use of any operating correction in the direction of 17,300-17,500 ranges to build up lengthy positions with the cease lack of 17,000 ranges. “On the upper aspect, the 17,900-18,100 degree would act as speedy resistance. A transfer above 18,100 may set off quick overlaying with recent lengthy build-up which may take the Nifty in the direction of all-time excessive ranges of 18,600 ranges,” it mentioned.

(With information inputs from Ritesh Presswala)


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