NFL Betting Cheat Sheet — Why three is the magic quantity in Week 4

NFL competitiveness and betting drama have reached all-time highs. That is not an opinion, it is a truth.

Eighteen video games have been determined by three factors or much less, which is probably the most ever via three weeks. Opening weekend overwhelmed us with missed subject objectives and wild endings, and the chaos has solely continued. So, what does this imply for betting?

Three is the final word key quantity in NFL handicapping as a result of it’s the commonest margin of victory. That is at all times been the case, and it nonetheless is, although the league moved again the extra-point distance in 2015 to encourage 2-point conversions. Since that rule change, 14.8% of video games have been determined by precisely three factors. The following-closest margin is 7 with 9%.

The quantity you’ll want to know

Nevertheless, 10 of 48 video games have been determined by two factors or much less (20.8%). Maybe compounding the tight finishes is that scoring is the bottom it has been since 2006. So, with a couple of of each 5 video games touchdown inside a few factors, does this imply we have now to start out paying nearer consideration to level spreads of two and a pair of.5?

“No. One and two are by no means linked. It is at all times about three. It is a small pattern measurement,” SuperBook head NFL oddsmaker and Las Vegas veteran Ed Salmons advised ESPN. “I assure you on the finish of the 12 months, once you undergo every little thing, the numbers will seem like they usually do.”

With scoring down, the unders have adopted swimsuit. By the primary two weeks, 68% of video games went beneath the closing complete. Nevertheless, the market adjusted for Week 3, and we noticed precisely half the video games hit the beneath.

We will see if Week 4 presents extra slender wins and low-scoring video games.

Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5, 45)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m ET, Allegiant Stadium, Paradise

The Raiders are the league’s solely 0-3 group, so, naturally, I’m keen to put factors in opposition to a 2-1 group with Tremendous Bowl aspirations. Betting the NFL can hardly ever make sense, and that is one instance. Las Vegas is clearly a lot better than what a winless group would recommend, however the Raiders even have loads of deficiencies. The query is whether or not they reply on this digital must-win scenario. I’ve confidence they are going to be tremendous in opposition to a Denver protection that has been stable however is a contact overrated from final 12 months. Nevertheless, one would assume that Russell Wilson and the Broncos’ offense will discover their rhythm in some unspecified time in the future. I simply hope it isn’t this Sunday.

Decide: Raiders -2.5

Line transfer of the week

Kansas Metropolis Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, 8:25 p.m ET, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa

“Sunday Night time Soccer” presents us Patrick Mahomes in opposition to Tom Brady. It additionally supplies the most important discrepancy of motion, along with some attention-grabbing line motion. Roughly 75% of all bets have backed Kansas Metropolis. Nevertheless, an analogous proportion is backing Brady at dwelling. Take into accout this sport confronted the potential of relocation, so some motion all through the week might have centered round the home guidelines I referenced earlier.

As a result of attainable relocation, Kansas Metropolis opened as a brief highway favourite, implying that Tampa Bay would lose the home-field benefit that is baked into the purpose unfold. Nevertheless, oddsmakers moved the road towards PK as soon as the league introduced the sport would stay in South Florida. Sharp cash additionally influenced that line transfer. The Bucs are actually one-point dwelling favorites, although the general public is closely backing Kansas Metropolis.

Sharp report

As at all times, the professionals land one of the best of a quantity as a result of oddsmakers reply aggressively to their wagers. That is the character of the beast. In reality, most operators welcome their actions to allow them to place their legal responsibility accordingly. Clearly, professionals may be each side of the identical play, however I’d say that is their consensus: Steelers -3, Cardinals +1, Seahawks +4, Colts -3, Patriots +10.5 and Vikings/Saints beneath 43.5.

Favourite prop

Decide: Josh Allen over 1.5 passing TDs (-240)

Right here we go once more. The oddsmakers refuse to deal with the MVP betting favourite like they do Mahomes, so I’ll proceed to fireplace on this over. Now, the juice is lastly catching up. -240 interprets to 71%. He has cashed this prop within the first half in all three video games thus far. I’ll play it once more as a result of I feel we see a shootout in Baltimore. Plus, Buffalo ranks within the high third in designed cross performs within the crimson zone and goal-to-go conditions. However, clearly, store round and see if you could find decrease juice.