Internet migration to UK hits document excessive of 504,000

Internet migration to the UK rose to a document excessive of greater than half one million folks within the yr to June 2022, in line with figures printed by the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics on Thursday.

The surge in long-term arrivals to the UK was pushed by a post-pandemic rebound in worldwide examine and by inflows of Ukrainian and Afghan refugees and Hong Kong residents. Abroad recruitment by UK employers — the NHS specifically — additionally contributed.

“Brexit has not decreased internet migration . . . The top of free motion doesn’t imply the UK is closed to migrants; simply open otherwise,” mentioned Jonathan Portes, professor at King’s School, London. However he added that future flows have been unlikely to stay at present ranges, and it was too quickly to say whether or not general work-related migration would improve.

The ONS labels Thursday’s estimates as provisional and experimental as a result of they’re based mostly on new methodology, drawing on administrative knowledge collected by completely different authorities departments, and aren’t immediately comparable with earlier figures.

However the brand new knowledge point out that internet migration within the 12 months to June trebled from the earlier yr — when the pandemic weighed on worldwide journey — to round double its historic common.

Jay Lindop, director of the ONS’ Centre for Worldwide Migration, mentioned an “unprecedented” collection of world occasions — together with the tip of coronavirus lockdowns, the post-Brexit transition, Ukrainian warfare and resettlement of Afghans and Hong Kong British nationals, had all contributed to “document ranges of long-term immigration”. This meant it was too early to say whether or not larger inward migration would proceed.

Nonetheless, the figures supply essentially the most full indication so far of how the post-Brexit modifications in UK migration coverage are affecting the inhabitants.

Greg Thwaites, analysis director on the Decision Basis, mentioned the information instructed that migration patterns had “essentially shifted post-Brexit”, with extra EU residents now leaving the UK than coming to the nation.

Of the 1.1mn individuals who got here to remain in Britain long-term within the yr to June 2022, 704,000 have been from exterior the EU, the ONS mentioned — a rise of 379,000 from the earlier yr.

In contrast, EU nationals accounted for nearly half of the 560,000 who emigrated from the UK long-term in the identical interval, with 51,000 extra EU nationals leaving than arrived.

The general internet migration determine of 504,000 for the yr to June compares with official estimates that internet migration will ultimately settle at simply above 200,000 a yr.

The ONS additionally revised down its migration estimates for the earlier two years. It now places internet migration for the yr to June 2020 at 88,000, a complete that grew to 173,000 for the yr to June 2021.

The ONS mentioned the quickest progress in visa issuance through the previous yr was for college students. Many of those will depart the UK on the finish of their programs, though a current leisure in visa guidelines may enable extra to remain and work after they graduate than in earlier years.

Schemes for Ukrainians, Afghans and Hong Kong residents accounted for 140,000 of the web migration complete. However the figures don’t embody individuals who arrived by clandestine irregular routes, such because the estimated 35,000 who got here by small boats over the identical interval.