School soccer’s tier of six and what it means for the CFP

Ohio State, Georgia, Clemson, Alabama, Michigan and Tennessee.

Name them the “tier of six” as a result of extra doubtless than not, the School Soccer Playoff will probably be made up totally of that group this yr, in line with the Allstate Playoff Predictor.

After a wild Week 7, the playoff image went from trying like three heavy favorites plus a wild card to 6 groups combating for 4 spots.

Every of the six groups listed above individually has at the very least a 49% likelihood on the School Soccer Playoff, and each different workforce is under 12%. The prospect that the CFP options 4 groups from that group is 62%.

As well as, the 14 most probably playoff combos solely characteristic these six groups.

The playoff race is not precisely simply six groups combating for 4 spots now. Undefeated Ole Miss (11% likelihood on the playoff) nonetheless controls its future and would even have an out of doors shot if it misplaced to Alabama and completed at 11-1 with out profitable the SEC West. Texas (8%) has two losses however may nonetheless have an opportunity if it ran the desk, significantly since a kind of losses was to Alabama. USC (8%) may win out and attain the CFP regardless of its loss to Utah final weekend. And TCU (6%) is undefeated, too, although FPI is barely much less of a fan of the Horned Frogs than any of the earlier groups talked about, so it thinks it is barely much less doubtless TCU can reap the benefits of its favorable place.

So all of these groups may work their means into the playoff. However they aren’t prone to. And once more, the most probably result’s that 4 groups from the tier of six find yourself within the CFP. Why is that, and what questions do we have now about that group? Let’s dive in.

Why does Alabama have a greater likelihood on the CFP than Tennessee?

Alabama might have suffered a loss by the hands of the Volunteers, however the Allstate Playoff Predictor doesn’t abide by ballot logic. It is true that the Volunteers are undefeated and likewise may fairly conceivably make the playoff as an 11-1 workforce with a loss to an eventual SEC champion Georgia (due to this fact doubtless besting an 11-2 Alabama workforce). However Alabama and Tennessee aren’t the identical.

Regardless of Alabama’s loss to the Volunteers, FPI considers the Crimson Tide roughly eight factors per recreation higher on a impartial subject. Subsequently: Alabama is simply extra prone to win video games. It is shut now, in fact, however Alabama continues to be barely extra prone to attain the CFP.

Can Ohio State and Michigan attain the CFP collectively?

Completely. In actual fact, there is a 37% likelihood the 2 rivals each make it to the CFP, and 5 of the ten most probably playoff combos characteristic the 2 rivals.

The explanation that quantity is so excessive is that each groups are important favorites in each recreation till they face one another on Nov. 26 in Columbus, in a recreation Ohio State is a 75% favourite in, per FPI. If Michigan wins out till that recreation, then loses to Ohio State and finishes as an 11-1 non-champion, it will nonetheless have a 51% likelihood to achieve the playoff. In a task reversal the place Ohio State misplaced to Michigan and completed 11-1, the Buckeyes would have a 68% likelihood.

Due to that situation, there is a pretty first rate likelihood they each attain the playoff and will even face one another a second time this season.

What’s chalk?

Whereas we won’t lock in a end result for each recreation — that may create too particular of a situation for the Predictor to fairly weigh in on – we will slim it down quite a bit. So let’s do this chalky situation:

• Georgia wins the SEC championship recreation over Alabama

• Tennessee wins each recreation aside from a loss to Georgia

• Ohio State wins the Massive Ten

• Michigan wins each recreation aside from a loss to Ohio State

• Clemson wins the ACC

There is a 1 in 20 shot that each one of that exactly occurs. If it does Ohio State and Georgia are playoff locks, and there could be uncertainty over the ultimate two spots.

Clemson could be a 65% favourite to seize one of many playoff berths, adopted by Tennessee at 58%, Michigan at 41% and Alabama at 23%. In different phrases: if the chalk holds, it may create an awfully fascinating situation for the choice committee.