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The shares of American Airways Group Inc (NASDAQ:AAL) are struggling for path right this moment, final seen down 0.2% at $14.65 regardless of right this moment’s broader market rally. The fairness already carries a 27.9% year-over-year deficit, and is now eyeing its third-straight day by day drop. What’s extra, AAL may proceed careening in the direction of its Oct. 3, two-year low of $11.65, after operating right into a traditionally bearish trendline.
Digging deeper, American Airways inventory at the moment sits inside one customary deviation of its 160-day transferring common. Per Schaeffer’s Senior Quantitative Analyst Rocky White’s most up-to-date examine, AAL has seen six comparable alerts within the final three years, and was decrease one month later 83% of the time, averaging an 11.3% dip. A transfer of comparable magnitude would place the safety again under the $13.20 stage, which contained two of its newest pullbacks.
Analysts are nonetheless on the fence, indicating a spherical of downgrades and/or price-target cuts may push American Airways inventory decrease. Of the 13 analysts in query, 10 nonetheless name AAL a tepid “maintain.”
Now appears to be like like an excellent time to leap in on the bearish bandwagon. That is per the inventory’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Index (SVI) of 48%, which sits within the extraordinarily low ninth percentile of its 12-month vary, suggesting choices merchants are pricing in low volatility expectations for AAL proper now.
What’s extra, AAL’s Schaeffer’s Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is available in at 19 out of 100. In different phrases, the safety has persistently realized decrease volatility than its choices have priced in, making the inventory a possible premium-selling candidate.
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