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EU international locations reduce gasoline demand by 1 / 4 in November at the same time as temperatures fell, within the newest proof that the bloc is succeeding in lowering its reliance on Russian vitality since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.
Provisional information from commodity analytics firm ICIS confirmed gasoline demand within the EU was 24 per cent beneath the five-year common final month, following an analogous fall in October.
European international locations have been attempting to pare again their reliance on Russian gasoline and oil by discovering different sources or making modifications to curb demand. They’ve been helped by an unseasonably heat autumn, though up to now two weeks temperatures have dropped nearer to regular ranges.
In Germany and Italy, the EU’s two largest gas-consuming international locations, demand fell 23 and 21 per cent respectively in November, ICIS discovered. In France and Spain it fell by greater than a fifth and within the Netherlands by simply over a 3rd.
“Trade is proportionally driving the largest reductions in gasoline consumption, and that is solely the results of clear market pricing,” mentioned Tom Marzec-Manser, lead European gasoline analyst at ICIS. The excessive gasoline value has “disincentivised” use, he added.
Europe has additionally imposed sweeping new restrictions on Russia’s oil exports to restrict its use of that vitality supply too.
The EU’s bar on seaborne Russian oil imports got here into impact on Monday. In the meantime G7 leaders have agreed to launch a so-called value cap that goals to maintain Russian oil flowing to international locations similar to India and China to keep away from creating widespread shortages, however provided that the crude is bought at lower than $60 a barrel to crimp Moscow’s revenues.
Nonetheless trade executives and analysts have warned that with out additional declines in demand and extra imports of LNG, gasoline shortages may persist for years in Europe.
“Demand will must be decrease than pre [Russia-Ukraine] battle ranges to get sufficient stock” for subsequent winter, mentioned Alex Tuckett, head of economics at consultancy CRU Group. “The query is, how a lot demand discount, and the way painful it will likely be.”
The drop in demand meant gasoline storage services within the EU have been at 95 per cent capability in mid-November, based on trade physique Gasoline Infrastructure Europe, near an all-time excessive. File inflows of LNG into the area additionally helped.
However colder climate in latest weeks has elevated demand and storage services are actually at about 93 per cent capability.
On the identical time, costs have risen. Dutch TTF gasoline futures, the benchmark European contract, are buying and selling close to €150 a megawatt hour, the very best in additional than a month, however nonetheless solely half the €300/MWh they briefly reached in August.
Greater gasoline costs are a burden on households and companies, however they’ve enabled Europe to draw document volumes of LNG due to the premium it pays over different consumers.
ICIS information confirmed that Europe and the UK imported 11.14mn tonnes of LNG in November, a document month-to-month excessive, and are heading in the right direction to obtain 12.2mn tonnes in December.
Marzec-Manser added a observe of warning on Europe’s deliberate cap on gasoline costs.
“Any transfer to cap wholesale gasoline costs may jeopardise Europe’s potential to safe [LNG] provide, not simply this winter, however for subsequent winter and past,” he mentioned. “If Europe [is] not the premium international gasoline market it might result in a discount in imported cargoes at a time when they’re wanted most.”
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